Assessing Product Opportunities

Marty Cagan argues that product managers should formally assess new product opportunities before building, rather than relying on executive decree, intuition, or a single large customer's funding. He notes that Market Requirements Documents often turn into disguised specs and go unread, so he proposes a lightweight alternative called a Product Opportunity Assessment. The assessment answers ten fundamental questions, from the value proposition to a go or no-go recommendation. The goal is either to stop wasteful investments early or to clarify what success will require. Even when leadership insists on a product, the exercise leaves the team far better informed about what it is getting into.

01Key takeaways

• Run a lightweight opportunity assessment before building, rather than leaping on intuition or executive mandate.
• Define the exact problem solved in one crisp statement; feature lists are not a problem definition.
• Be conservative when sizing markets, and remember not every opportunity must be a billion-dollar market.
• Work out the go-to-market approach early, since how a product is sold can significantly shape its requirements.
• Make an explicit go or no-go decision with senior management, and use the assessment even when the answer is predetermined.

02Key sections

Where opportunities come from

New technologies, new hires, and shifting competitors constantly create product openings, even in mature markets. The product manager must quickly judge which are promising and which are premature.

The problems with MRDs

Market Requirements Documents are meant to describe the opportunity, not the solution, but in practice they often become specs that are slow to write and rarely read. Skipping them entirely is also risky.

The ten questions of an assessment

A lightweight assessment covers the problem, target market, size, competition, differentiator, timing, go-to-market, success metrics, critical requirements, and a final recommendation. Defining the problem crisply is usually the hardest step.

Making the go or no-go decision

Results should be presented to senior management so the company makes an explicit decision. Bad ideas should be caught early, since choosing what to pursue is among the most important choices a company makes.

When the decision is already made

Sometimes strategic reasons justify a product even if market success is unlikely. Even then, the assessment deepens understanding and may change executive opinion or at least clarify the challenge.

03From the post

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04Frameworks mentioned

Summary and takeaways written by PM Atlas; quotes are short excerpts. © the original author.