By Teresa Torres · producttalk.org · @ttorres on X · LinkedIn
Teresa Torres recounts meeting a fitness-trainer founder at a startup pitch event whose customer definition was vague and whose validation relied on survey answers about hypothetical future purchases. She argues that people are poor predictors of their own future behavior, since they overestimate future time and money and want to be agreeable. Past behavior is a far better predictor, so product teams should ask what people have actually done and paid for before. Follow-up questions about when, how long, what they used before, and why they switched reveal real patterns. The lesson matters because it shifts discovery away from flattering hypotheticals toward evidence of real willingness to pay.
01Key takeaways
- Don't ask people what they would do in the future; their answers are unreliable predictions.
- Ask whether the person has previously paid for a similar service and what it was.
- Probe past behavior with follow-ups: when, how long, what they used before, and why they stopped.
- Ask what people currently pay for related products to estimate realistic willingness to pay.
- Be skeptical of survey data showing purchase intent, since people overestimate their future resources and follow-through.
02Key sections
- Vague targeting in a pitch
- A founder struggles to define his customer beyond 'people who already go to the gym,' and his motivations remain unexplored. The exchange shows how easily broad, unexamined assumptions slip into a business plan.
- Surveys about the future mislead
- Survey results showing willingness to pay sound promising but reflect what people imagine, not what they will do. The founder's own gym attendance gap illustrates how poorly people forecast their behavior.
- Why future predictions fail
- People overestimate future money and time, ignore obstacles, and want to give pleasing answers. Those biases make hypothetical willingness-to-pay data unreliable.
- Ask about past behavior instead
- Past behavior predicts future behavior better than stated intentions do. Torres recommends asking whether someone has paid for similar services and probing the details.
- Use spending history to gauge price
- Looking at what people currently pay for related services reveals realistic price points. Her Hulu, Netflix, and cable example shows how real spending tells you more than hypothetical answers.
03From the post
“At SXSW this year, I met a startup founder, a former fitness trainer, who was about to launch an online business offering personalized gym workouts. I liked that he had first-hand experience as a personal trainer and wasn’t just a gym rat. But I was surprised when he”
Summary and takeaways written by PM Atlas; quotes are short excerpts. © the original author.