By Teresa Torres · producttalk.org · @ttorres on X · LinkedIn
Teresa Torres examines the common push to build a mobile app and tests the assumption that it will drive growth. Stakeholders often justify the idea with broad beliefs about mobile usage, yet the data on typical app performance tells a sobering story: the average app gets far fewer downloads than the headline giants, and many downloaded apps are used only once. She explains the difference between the inside view, which focuses on your specific situation and hopes, and the outside view, which looks at how a general category performs. Her core lesson is that the outside view is usually more accurate, so product teams should find base rates first and then honestly assess how they differ from average.
01Key takeaways
- Ask stakeholders which specific assumptions justify a request before debating the request itself.
- Look up base rates for your category, such as typical download or retention numbers, before forecasting results.
- Compare your situation to the average case and be realistic about whether you truly have an advantage.
- Be wary of hockey-stick growth stories, since headline success cases are rare outliers.
- Ask peers at other organizations what results they actually got before committing resources.
02Key sections
- The mobile app question
- A team faces repeated requests for a mobile app, with many reasons it is not yet a priority. The author probes the assumptions behind the urgency.
- Testing the growth assumption
- The author examines whether a mobile app will drive growth by looking at typical download numbers and usage rates across apps, which are far below the top performers.
- Inside view versus outside view
- Citing the Heath brothers, the post contrasts a narrow, situation-specific perspective with a broader look at how a whole category performs, noting the latter is typically more accurate.
- Finding base rates
- To escape the inside view, the author recommends locating published benchmarks or asking peers about their experience in the same category.
- Resisting hope
- Optimism and hope push teams toward unrealistic expectations, so decisions should start from base rates and then adjust honestly for real advantages or disadvantages.
03From the post
“This post is part of a series about making better product decisions. One of the most common questions I get at my company, is why don't we have a mobile app. We are in the age of mobile, how can we possibly survive without a mobile app? There are”
04Frameworks mentioned
Summary and takeaways written by PM Atlas; quotes are short excerpts. © the original author.