By Shreyas Doshi · shreyasdoshi.substack.com · @shreyas on X · LinkedIn
Shreyas Doshi argues that peer-reviewed studies on human psychology and behavior are often over-trusted by smart people. Such research typically reports averages and correlations across populations, which says little about how well a finding applies to any particular individual or situation. Because of this gap, readers can mistake a statistical tendency for a rule about themselves or their teams. The piece advocates treating studies as one input rather than a verdict, and instead reasoning from direct observation and first-principles judgment. This matters for product managers who often cite research to justify decisions about users and teams.
01Key takeaways
- Treat peer-reviewed findings as population-level averages, not individual predictions.
- Ask how well a study's sample and context match your own users or team before applying it.
- Use research as one input alongside direct observation and your own reasoning.
- Be cautious when citing studies to settle debates about how people will behave.
- Form your own hypotheses about behavior and test them in your specific environment.
02Key sections
- The core mistake
- Smart people often lean on academic studies to confirm what they already believe about human behavior. The essay frames this reliance as a common error in reasoning.
- What studies actually measure
- Research tends to report averages and correlations across groups rather than guarantees for individuals. That limits how directly its conclusions transfer to a specific person or context.
- Why applicability is unclear
- A finding that holds on average may not hold for you, your users, or your team. Studies rarely tell you how much a result will apply in your particular setting.
- A wiser approach
- Rather than deferring to research, the author suggests thinking for yourself and forming your own judgment, using studies as supporting evidence rather than the final word.
03From the post
“One mistake many smart people make is relying on studies to confirm tendencies about human behavior and human psychology.”
Summary and takeaways written by PM Atlas; quotes are short excerpts. © the original author.