By Marty Cagan · svpg.com · LinkedIn
Marty Cagan argues that the rapid rise of generative AI tools like ChatGPT, Midjourney and GPT-4 is a disruptive technology wave comparable to personal computers, the Internet, and the iPhone. He notes that disruptions create winners and losers, and that second- and third-order effects are hard to predict, so teams should prototype and explore rather than try to forecast. He expects the wave to affect every product role, with product managers central because they own the value, viability and ethical risks of what gets built. Cagan is optimistic that it could accelerate the shift from feature teams to empowered product teams, but warns that a race to market may ignore unintended harms to people and society.
01Key takeaways
- Work with your product teams to learn these new enabling technologies and build early prototypes.
- Explore implications and opportunities rather than trying to precisely predict the long-term impact of new technology.
- Expect second- and third-order effects to matter more than the obvious first-order changes.
- Ask how new technology can solve customer problems that were previously unsolvable.
- Treat ethical and societal risks as core product responsibilities, not afterthoughts, especially when racing to market.
02Key sections
- A history of disruptive technologies
- Cagan recounts how personal computers, client/server networking, the Internet, the iPhone and cloud computing each transformed products and companies. Earlier disruptions look quaint now, and the same will happen to today's tools.
- Predicting impact is hard
- First-order effects are predictable, but the most important changes are second- and third-order. Citing Benedict Evans, he notes that people first bend new tools to old ways of working before changing how they work.
- Impact across the product team
- Engineers feel the earliest effects, as with GitHub Copilot, but design and product management will also change. Cagan expects the coming years to spotlight product management.
- Optimism and realism
- He hopes the wave pushes companies toward empowered product teams, while worrying that speed to market will sideline ethical and societal concerns that the industry has historically handled poorly.
03From the post
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Summary and takeaways written by PM Atlas; quotes are short excerpts. © the original author.